In a time of crisis, far-sighted thinking needs to be matched by rapid short-term action if the biggest opportunities are to be unlocked (and in some cases, the worst near-term risks avoided).   To be effective, you need to minimize the time taken between idea generation and action, whilst still ensuring that the underlying thinking is properly tested so that you don't just jump from the COVID-19 pan into the fire.

We share below a simple framework we have used to guide our own internal initiatives as well as to help clients globally to develop and launch rapid response initiatives.  Please do call if we can help you too.

As countries and economies plunge through the COVID-19 Crisis, one thing is clear - there will be no return to the old 'normal', whatever that was.  Whilst we can be sure that the health environment will eventually return to normal, this is likely to take some time.  Thus there will be a gap between the short-term lock-downs that many people are living under and a new normal becoming established.  

As with any period of crisis and significant change, with the right mindset there is a golden opportunity to accelerate changes that are beneficial to businesses, employees, customers, suppliers and the wider community.  We provide below a simple framework that we have been using both within our own business and with clients around the world.  Note the emphasis on finding near-term opportunities to take action that creates long-term strategic value.

COVID-19 has had a profound impact on many people and many businesses. Whilst the immediate repercussions have been negative for many, some businesses have seen a leap in demand.  With this in mind, it's helpful to think about both the short-term and long-term effects in understanding how your own business, as well as the businesses of your customers and your suppliers, may be impacted. 

Meanwhile, for more perspective on how to understand the changes that are under way and how to address the resulting challenges, please read Crisis, Creativity and Collaboration.

The COVID-19 crisis is accelerating the impact of the Robot Revolution, creating permanent economic shifts.  Individuals, businesses and governments should seize this opportunity to renew their thinking, refocus their effort and retrain to help create a better, more resilient economy and society

What should you be doing now to prepare for what lies ahead?  How can you support your colleagues, teams and community?

This episode of ESGX Live will explore:

1. Which sectors and what roles will be most impact by the COVID Crisis when we return to a “new normal”?
2. What should we each be doing now to reskill ourselves for the new world?
3. How can we help our teams, colleagues and communities unlock opportunity?

Our special guests will be Veronica Munro and Nigel Cumberland.  Visit this link to register to join the live audience via Zoom, where you can meet other attendees, ask questions and contribute to the discussion.

Let me return to the Australian outbreak today - for now, at least, the daily case numbers have not begun to leap upwards.  If this trend continues, and Australia begins to follow a track that looks more like Norway than Belgium, this will clearly be a very good thing.  The full impact of the self-imposed cruise ship super-cluster remain to be seen however.  Click the image for our full update.

Not much good news in today's figures - other than that they are tracking much as expected.  The US outbreak now has more than triple the number of cases as China at a comparable point (measured by number of days after reaching 1,000 cases.  It is adding new cases at a rate of over 20,000 a day (averaging over the last few days).  In comparison, at this point in China new case numbers had halved from the peak - ie the rate of new cases in the USA is now more than ten times the rate in the Chinese outbreak (ie the slope shown by the red bars is over 10x the slope of the black line below.  
Click the chart for our full summary.

There has been some comment that Australia has been successful in beginning to 'flatten the curve', ie slow the rate of growth.  On the log chart below, a straight line implies exponential growth - ie reducing growth will show up as a line that is becoming less steep.  There is some sign of this in the numbers, but the cruise-liner farrago last week does not augur well for what lies ahead.  Thus we remain very cautious.  

Meanwhile, for those arguing that the current lock-downs may not be worth it, please pay attention to what is happening in New York, Spain and Italy, amongst others.  All have case numbers that continue to escalate rapidly, placing a huge burden on health systems.  Many tragedies lie ahead.
For our full summary, please click here.