Global Update - 29th March

There has been some comment that Australia has been successful in beginning to 'flatten the curve', ie slow the rate of growth.  On the log chart below, a straight line implies exponential growth - ie reducing growth will show up as a line that is becoming less steep.  There is some sign of this in the numbers, but the cruise-liner farrago last week does not augur well for what lies ahead.  Thus we remain very cautious.  

Meanwhile, for those arguing that the current lock-downs may not be worth it, please pay attention to what is happening in New York, Spain and Italy, amongst others.  All have case numbers that continue to escalate rapidly, placing a huge burden on health systems.  Many tragedies lie ahead.
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