Global summary - March 17th

Looking through the overnight numbers from WHO, the conclusions are unsurprising.

1. The shutdown in Italy is slowing transmission gradually - we expect stronger impact over the coming days.
2. Italy, France and Germany are following a similar track to Korea - not a bad thing in the circumstances
   
3. The figures from Spain are highly concerning - action has now been taken but will take several days before we begin to see the impact.  Spain is following a track half way between Korea and China.   
4. Figures from the US are also following a track more like China than Korea.  Lack of daily data over the weekend from CDC is problematic - we have taken Johns Hopkins data which is more up to date but which may add to the nasty upward kick in case numbers
5. China is approaching the end of the outbreak - a phenomenal achievement
6. Boris Johnson back-flipped on policy late yesterday - the UK will likely head to a lockdown including the school system within days.

Full details at this link.