We have tracked the Corona Virus outbreak closely since China first started reporting case numbers in late January. We share below our summary of what the data is showing us. Key points today include:
1. A concerning leap in cases in Denmark
2. Ongoing growth in case numbers in the UK and USA
3. Other European countries are on a similar track to Italy.
A note on methodology - our forecasts are based on estimates of underlying transmission rates and also assume that countries can replicate the reductions in transmission rates achieved by eg South Korea. Thus if observed case numbers are in line or below projected case numbers, this implies that countries are being successful in reducing transmission rates, even if absolute case numbers are still increasing.
If there is interest in this analysis, we will post occasional updates.