Looking through the overnight numbers from WHO, the conclusions are unsurprising.

1. The shutdown in Italy is slowing transmission gradually - we expect stronger impact over the coming days.
2. Italy, France and Germany are following a similar track to Korea - not a bad thing in the circumstances
   
3. The figures from Spain are highly concerning - action has now been taken but will take several days before we begin to see the impact.  Spain is following a track half way between Korea and China.   
4. Figures from the US are also following a track more like China than Korea.  Lack of daily data over the weekend from CDC is problematic - we have taken Johns Hopkins data which is more up to date but which may add to the nasty upward kick in case numbers
5. China is approaching the end of the outbreak - a phenomenal achievement
6. Boris Johnson back-flipped on policy late yesterday - the UK will likely head to a lockdown including the school system within days.

Full details at this link.  

Another day, and new data that still tells more or less the same story - European outbreaks are expanding rapidly.  Transmission rates in Italy have slowed slightly, but remain high.  Spain is even more concerning (blue bars below) - tellingly it is now on a materially worse track than Korea.  
All of this points to the urgent need for complete lock-downs in any country with more than a handful of cases.   Much of the action seems to be happening bottom up - NYC schools were encouraging kids to stay home before the system was officially closed on Sunday evening. 
Click the image below or here for a more detailed summary. 

The outbreak continues to accelerate in Europe - actual figures observed today were broadly higher than predicted using reductions in transmission rates achieved in (eg) Korea (see earlier post or notes on sheet for methodology).  Please click the image below for the full file.  

We have tracked the Corona Virus outbreak closely since China first started reporting case numbers in late January.  We share below our summary of what the data is showing us.  Key points today include:
1. A concerning leap in cases in Denmark
2. Ongoing growth in case numbers in the UK and USA
3. Other European countries are on a similar track to Italy.

A note on methodology - our forecasts are based on estimates of underlying transmission rates and also assume that countries can replicate the reductions in transmission rates achieved by eg South Korea.  Thus if observed case numbers are in line or below projected case numbers, this implies that countries are being successful in reducing transmission rates, even if absolute case numbers are still increasing.  

If there is interest in this analysis, we will post occasional updates.​